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Beijing Blast Number Three: Why the London 2012 Olympics will be Tougher to win than the Beijing 2008 Olympics
By Wayne Goldsmith | In Beijing Blast
So you think winning Gold at the 2008 Beijing Olympics is tough?
London 2012 will be much, much tougher.
Why?
Continued sporting improvement in emerging nations. At the two most recent Olympic Games, the Olympic powerhouses - the sporting super nations - have been USA, Russia, China, Germany, France and Australia. With the continued economic growth in Asia, Africa and the Middle East and their subsequent investment in world class sporting systems, coach education and development, talent identification, sports science etc etc, the Olympic landscape is changing rapidly. It is highly likely that well within 20 years, the top six nations at the Olympics could be: China, India, USA, Russia, South Africa and the UK.
London will be the start of the changing of the guard.
Northern hemisphere games and the central location of London. A London games means many of the top Olympic nations like Russia, Germany and France face little or no time zone change and only a few hours flight time to the competition.
French athletes for example, can effectively sleep in their own beds, fly to the Olympics, compete and still be home in time to watch themselves on the highlights package on TV that evening! Add to the mix countries like Spain, Italy, Hungary and about 20 others and you have a “home ground” advantage for half of the world!!!
Economic issues. For nations coming from the Southern Hemisphere, travel costs will more than double for the next Games. Countries like Australia are already facing a significant reduction in real terms in their funding for elite sport and are likely to face an environment of having to be more competitive in London with less money to spend on their Olympic preparation programs. Add to that the high cost of living in Europe for training camps, test events, the costs of shifting training and competition equipment (and horses!) across the world, the relative strength of the pound to most other currencies and winning in London will be an expensive exercise. It’s going to take a lot of Gold to get the Gold.
Peak Performance of the host nation - perfectly positioned in the performance cycle. The UK has invested a lot of money in developing a world class high performance sports system. It all started before 2000 with the introduction of their Sports Lottery funding system. Over the past 8 years, they have steadily improved in all key performance systems, have attracted some of the world’s leading coaches and sports scientists and invested heavily in facilities, equipment and research.
Money does not in itself buy Gold Medals. However, it provides the opportunity for talented and motivated people to create medal winning environments. It also takes “system maturity” - i.e. it takes about ten years for a system to evolve to the point where it is functioning effectively and efficiently and has worked out what it needs to do to win. The Host Nation will have had 12 years of system maturity by the time we get to London and in all probability will be perfectly poised to reap the rewards of a lot of hard work, time and money.
So, the good news is Beijing 2008 will be a fantastic experience with great athletes, talented coaches and hard working staff doing their best to achieve excellence for themselves and their nation.
But keep the celebrations short - London 2012 will be more challenging, more demanding and more difficult than any previous Games and medals will be harder to find than an honest car salesman or humble politician.
Wayne Goldsmith
August 6, 2008
Tags: Athletics, Baseball, Basketball, Beijing Olympic Games, Boxing, Cycling, Diving, Equestrian, Football, Hockey, Olympics, Rowing, Soccer, Softball, Swimming, Track and Field, Triathlon, Wrestling
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